How Russia Could Beat NATO, War of Attrition Over Taiwan

In this episode: How Russia could beat NATO without firing on it. Inside the Bundeswehr war game where Gady cut off the Baltics with a "humanitarian corridor" into Lithuania, an information-warfare campaign that split European politics, and nuclear saber-rattling aimed at Berlin — and his unsettling conclusion that Russia may not need a ground invasion at all.

A war of attrition over Taiwan. Why sinking China's invasion fleet — the celebrated "hellscape" — is the easy part, and what happens on "day after" once U.S. precision munitions run dry and Xi refuses to go home. Alperovitch and Gady debate whether denial alone wins anything, and how a conflict neither side can decisively win punishes whoever has the weaker defense-industrial base.

How Ukraine turned the tide. Stabilized manpower, a cleaner chain of command, a real edge in unmanned warfare (helped by Starlink finally going dark for Russian units), and a new mid and long-range strike advantage — set against the relentless Donbas grind and the debate over whether drones have killed maneuver warfare or just split the sky in two.

[ 00:00 ] Introduction

[ 00:58 ] How Russia Could Defeat NATO: A War Game

[ 07:42 ] Potential Russian Air Campaign Against Europe

[ 09:48 ] Result of the Russia-NATO War Game

[ 13:13 ] German Brigade in Lithuania: Obstacle for Russia?

[ 15:34 ] Can Russia Achieve Strategic Surprise?

[ 17:10 ] How to Defend the Baltics

[ 24:04 ] NATO's Deficiencies in Ballistic Missiles

[ 27:28] US-China Conflict: Could It Turn Into a War of Attrition?

[ 29:35 ] Maritime vs. Land Warfare: The Taiwan Dilemma

[ 35:10 ] What Happens After the PLA Fleet is Sunk?

[ 40:48 ] Ukrainian Military Successes in 2026

[ 48:15 ] Are Conditions Right for the Return of Maneuver Warfare?

[ 49:36 ] Splitting the Air Space: High and Low Altitude Air Superiority