GEOPOLITICS DecantedOctober 30, 2025

Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.

Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado trade experts Sarah Stewart and John Corrigan examine the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. They explore the stakes of this constitutional challenge, including whether the government might have to refund the substantial tariff revenues already collected and how the administration could respond should the Court rule against them.

[00:00] Introduction
[02:16] Types of Tariffs Currently in Place
[12:13] Supreme Court Timeline and the Issue of Refunds
[14:33] Alternative Tariff Options
[22:14] A New Weapon for the Trump Administration: Section 338 Tariffs
[31:14] Back to the Future With an Old Tool: Section 421 Tariffs
[38:14] Why Countries Shouldn't Rush to Celebrate Potential End of IAEPA Tariffs