World on the BrinkFrom Minerals to Robots: Recent Research on China’s Role in Global Supply Chains
Four takeaways from Silverado’s recent supply chain research across a range of industries are discussed below.
Authors: Based on research by Mitch Semanik (vehicles), Meagan Reid (rare earths), and Andrew David (robotics and wafers)
The global industrial scoreboard is shifting, but is not fixed. Policies that the U.S. and key partners put in place now can shift the trajectory. Four takeaways from Silverado’s recent supply chain research across a range of industries are discussed below.
Note: Updates to Silverado’s rare earth and vehicle dashboards will be released later this month.
- China was the leading producer of humanoid robots in 2025, but there is still time for U.S. producers to lead in this industry
China supplied most of the global humanoid robot market in 2025, though most of those Chinese robots went into applications like entertainment, research, education, and guided tours, not advanced manufacturing or logistics. U.S. manufacturers are also competing in humanoid robotics and some have major plans to ramp up production. With significant additional technological improvements needed before humanoids’ use in many applications, China’s early lead in production is not yet an inevitable end result. The industry is, however, at a crucial period where U.S. firms need to be able to bring their technology to the market, iterate and improve their designs, and achieve economies of scale.
- China’s share of electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle exports is continuing to grow
China’s exports of electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles (EVs and PHEVs) increased in the first part of 2026 (data through May), according to Silverado’s latest dashboard, with China significantly increasing its share of global exports of these products. The share of imports accounted for by China also increased across China’s top five export destinations–the European Union, Brazil, United Kingdom, Australia, and Korea.
- China’s semiconductor silicon wafer industry continues to grow
Chinese firms are rapidly increasing production of semiconductor silicon wafers (which are the substrate used in most semiconductor wafer fabrication). This is leading to large market share gains within China for Chinese producers, with Chinese firms’ market share likely to continue to grow as the Chinese government pushes purchasers to use domestic suppliers. Chinese wafer producers are also increasing exports.
- China continues to restrict exports of rare earths
China continues to limit exports of rare earths, according to the latest Silverado dashboard. China’s exports of rare earth compounds and metals covered by China’s April 2025 export controls remained well below historical levels in June 2026. U.S.-bound exports—which fell to zero in May 2026— only marginally increased in June 2026. Further, China’s shipments of export-controlled compounds and metals to Japan fell to zero in June 2026, continuing the trend of limited exports to Japan since China imposed additional export controls on shipments to Japan starting in January.
China’s exports of rare earth magnets, which are only partially covered by China’s April 2025 export controls, have largely returned to pre-export control levels. However, among major export destinations, only the United States received a smaller volume of rare earth magnets in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2024.
